"In economics as in real life, nothing comes without cost.  The U.S. monetary stimulus program resulted in $4.5 trillion in Treasury debt.  As the debt level is drawn down, a return to more normal long-term rates and a slowdown in economic growth is likely to result.  The U.S. is far from alone..."

"In hindsight, it is strange that political turmoil since the beginning of the year did not affect the market.  An extremely toxic political climate fostered by twitternomics and grim one-party rule policies is no safe road to a well-functioning economy.  Yet the U.S. market seems to have hardly noticed..."

"The difficulty for understanding the current state of global capital markets is how to parse eight years of grinding, largely globally coordinated, central bank monetary macroeconomic policy relative to the release of political stalemate sentiment resulting from the Brexit vote and the 2016 Presidential election..."

4th Quarter 2016   Markets The fourth quarter of 2016 was a profitable period for globally diversified multi asset managers.  All major domestic large cap indices were up for both the quarter and the year. The S&P 500 was up 3.3% for the quarter and 9.5% year-to-date. The Dow Jones gained 7.9% this quarter and 13.4% for the year, while the NASDAQ was up 1.3% in the quart ...

3rd Quarter 2016   Markets It was a profitable period for well-diversified multi-asset strategic investors in global equity markets.  The S&P 500 was up 3.3% for the quarter and 6.1% year-to-date, the Dow Jones gained 2.1% this quarter and 5.1% for the year, and the NASDAQ was up an impressive 9.7% in the quarter and 6.1% for the year.  Domestic small cap outperformed la ...

2nd Quarter 2016   Markets Psychologically, the second quarter of 2016 was mired in uncertainty due to the coming British referendum on remaining in the European Union (EU).  In spite of the global shock of UK’s decision to leave the EU, the quarter ended with global markets retracing much of their declines.  Domestic equities ended mostly positive for both the quarter and t ...

1st Quarter 2016   Markets Domestic equities were mostly flat for the quarter.  The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, the Dow Jones gained 1.5%, and the NASDAQ lost 2.8%. The U.S. small cap Russell 2000 index lost 1.9%.  Domestic bond markets were stable for the quarter; Barclay’s Aggregate Bond Index gained 3.0%.  The dollar was down 4.2% to the euro and 6.6% to the Japanese yen.  C ...

4th Quarter 2015   Markets Domestic equities were positive for the quarter but mostly flat for the year.  In the quarter the S&P 500 gained 4.8%, the Dow Jones Industrials 5.8% and the NASDAQ 6.4%.  Year to date the S&P went down by 0.7%, Dow declined by 2.2% but the NASDAQ was up nearly 5.7%.  U.S. small caps underperformed large caps; the Russell 2000 index gained ...

3rd Quarter 2015   Markets The third quarter of 2015 was marked by significant losses in capital values and an increase in volatility.  The S&P 500 lost 7.55% in the quarter and 6.71% year-to-date; NASDAQ dropped 7.77% quarterly and 2.26% for the year; Dow Jones Industrial average declined 8.15% in the quarter and 8.68% year-to-date.  The VIX fear measure closed the quar ...

2nd Quarter 2015   Markets The second quarter of 2015 experienced heightened bond market volatility in anticipation of the Fed’s first rate increase as well as international equity volatility involving Greek debt and Chinese equities.   Despite whipsawed volatility, the major domestic and international equity indices ended close to where they started.  The Dow was down 0.9%, ...