Market Activity Posts

The law of gravity states that what goes up must come down. But the laws of economics say that investors generally are rewarded for staying invested. Stocks are hitting all-time highs right now, but what does that mean for investors? The phrase “all-time high” conjures up the image of a stock chart at its peak. But while “all-time high” is accurate in terms of describing the m ...

Recent market volatility after years of stable growth in US markets has shaken the faith of some investors. However, our analysis shows that historically, staying invested through volatile periods has provided superior returns when compared to selling when volatility rises and reinvesting later. Some of the greatest upside returns have happened shortly after volatility spikes, and investors who have pulled out have missed out on important opportunities for portfolio gains.

Investors often raise concerns when the stock market is near an all-time high.  I’ve discussed previously why it’s not generally a good idea to sell simply because the market attains a new high, since, if anything, historic evidence points to returns going forward from a market high being superior to average market returns.  But the rising 2017 US stock market...

Our January commentary (1/3/17) discussed some critiques of index-fund ETFs topical in the investment community.  The argument was that ETFs, because they trade like stocks, tend to encourage investors to trade actively as opposed to traditional mutual fund investing.  But it is always true that anything can be misused however otherwise beneficial.  In our view...

The Dow finally hit 20,000.  I wouldn’t ordinarily put much importance on an arbitrary milestone (see The Dow 20,000...Should We Care?), but the long hover just below this level was extraordinary.  This is not to say that markets need behave in any predictable manner.  Daily movements of the market tend to behave like random walks, and random walks commonly...

“Dow 20,000”

Those two words encapsulate three concepts: 1) the Dow is a relevant economic indicator; 2) 20,000 is a noteworthy milestone; 3) special consideration should be given to investing at all-time highs.  I’ll examine each in turn...

There has been much discussion and speculation of the political and economic consequences of yesterday’s vote for the UK to leave the European Union.  Ignoring politics altogether, and anything speculative about economics or financial markets, what can be said based on probability, financial theory, and an...

Interest rates affect your portfolio through all asset classes, but may do so in different ways. Investors are on edge about rising interest rates today, but sensitivity to interest rates has long been a concern of serious investors (along with all other aspects of portfolio risk).  Duration is the standard statistic used to describe the sensitivity of a portfolio to small cha ...

Question: U. S. Equity markets are up. Why isn’t all of my money in the S&P 500? Why do I have any exposure to treasuries when everybody knows they are underperforming U. S. equities? At the heart of New Frontier’s investment policy is planning for all contingencies and reducing portfolio risk. It may be fashionable to bet strongly on particular outcomes, but a sensible lo ...

The Federal Reserve’s announcement of continuing the stimulus program without change surprised many investors and pundits.  The media is much guilty of the hype surrounding the September announcement. In a note sent to our investors on the 9th we indicated that the most likely scenario in our view was that the Fed would continue the stimulus program unchanged and that tapering ...