Don’t Panic In the face of pessimism about the possibility of a recession and the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation at any cost, many investors may be worried. An analysis of the historical data from past recessions suggests that waiting for favorable market conditions could leave an investor at a disadvantage, compared to those who remain in, or enter, the market, irrespective ...

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By Joy Zheng

Bond investing has been challenging in 2022 due to historic macroeconomic events and significant interest rate hikes by the US Fed. The velocity of the yield change YTD has been stark, as illustrated below. For example, after an increase of nearly 200 bps through mid-June - with 10-year Treasury yields reaching 3.49% on June 14th - long-term yields declined by 90 bps in just th ...

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In spite of high inflation, political gridlock and persistent supply chain issues, the US continues to see strong performance relative to other international markets. In this article, we attempt to elucidate why international exposures should still be part of an optimized portfolio, how international and emerging markets differ in make-up from US markets, and how factors such a ...

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Key Takeaways: Historical one year returns after bear market events are higher on average compared to overall market history. Market volatility during the year following a bear market event is higher, and uncertainty of the 1-year return is also higher. For long-term investors, staying invested during a bear market rather than acting on the worst possible outcomes can be a ...

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Despite perceptions of a booming economy with strong consumer demand and low unemployment, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reported a surprise contraction in the first quarter of 2022. High inflation is forcing the Federal Reserve to rapidly raise rates ushering in a new, higher, interest rate environment and causing a volatile market with loss of asset values. In light of t ...

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Many have been concerned about recent heightened volatility in US markets. Indeed, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) attained a high of 38.94 on Monday, January 24, 2022, a level not seen since October of 2020, and US indices had extreme intra-day movement on several days during the same week. Some of this volatility may be driven by anticipation of rising interest rates, but int ...

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Key Takeaways U.S. markets remain strong year-to-date as stock markets hit record highs more than 50 times this year before losing momentum in early September amid growing uncertainty over economic growth. U.S. equities returns within the portfolios were relatively muted this quarter with gains from large cap stocks partially balancing out losses from small caps. Developed ...

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Due to the fluctuating nature of the economy, present market conditions can prompt investors to wait for a better time to invest, theorizing that waiting until after an economic downturn – whether a recession, government shutdown, or pandemic – will ensure greater return on investment. In reality, waiting for a favorable market scenario leaves investors at a disadvantage compar ...

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The Fed potentially winding down fiscal stimulus raises the question of whether current interest rates are sustainable. But investors have been concerned whether interest rates were too low for more than a decade. Seven years ago, in response to continued concern over the viability of investing in bonds, I made a case that rates in the US did not have to go up given the existin ...

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The proper implementation of asset allocation, and the correct application of its processes has been a concern for investment practitioners since the founding of modern portfolio theory by Harry Markowitz in 1952. As part of New Frontier’s legacy of investment research in daily practice, Dr. Richard Michaud will deliver a series of presentations on “Rethinking Asset Allocation” ...

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